Mavericks Odds: Futures progress report
We sit in the midst of a stretch where the Dallas Mavericks are playing one basketball game over a nine-day stretch, so there is no time like the present to check-in on our futures portfolio. I circled 12 different futures back in October and given that most every team has played about 25 games, we can get a pretty good read on where things stand as we head towards Christmas. Let’s assess where we stand and any potential additions that could be made to the portfolio.
Cash!
Jimmy Butler to record 10+ assists in a game this year (+100)
Season high: 10 assists
Jimmy recorded a triple double on December 16th against the Detroit Pistons, which officially cashed our first future. Many thanks to Jimmy, I appreciate his hard work. He’s now done this 29 times in his 5+ year stint with the Miami Heat.
Trending well
Dallas Mavericks over 49.5 wins (-120)
Current record: 17-9
You might have been questioning the process after the 5-7 start, but their metrics have never wavered. This is a very good basketball team that will rack up the wins this year.
Detroit Pistons over 25.5 wins (-120)
Current record: 11-16
As a longtime Cade Cunningham believer, I’ve been begging Detroit to put some shooting around him to open up the floor. They finally did that this offseason, and wouldn’t you believe it, Cade is having his best year as a pro. While not “good”, this team is competent enough to get to this number.
New Orleans Pelicans under 46.5 wins (-120)
Current record: 5-22
I didn’t expect the Basketball Gods to demolish the Pels quite like this, as this run of injury luck is quickly approaching 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies levels of bad. But they have, so this is money in the bank.
Washington Wizards under 19.5 wins (+115)
Current record: 3-21
The current thing you should know about the Wizards, as told by The Ringer’s Kirk Goldsberry: The best team in NBA history (by net rating): Whoever the Wizards are playing.
Anthony Edwards 3+ 3’s made per game (+220)
Current average: 4.3 3PM
Anthony Edwards is currently leading the NBA in total 3’s made this year. Seems like we’re off to a good start in that regard.
Too early to call
Milwaukee Bucks under 50.5 wins (-115)
Current record: 14-11
After their 2-8 start, I was feeling awfully good about where I stood. However, they’ve drastically improved their record since then. I’m still optimistic though, as per Cleaning the Glass the Bucks have overachieved by 1.4 wins to start the year. Regression could hit once they get out of this easier stretch of schedule.
New York Knicks under 54.5 wins (-115)
Current record: 16-10
The Knicks are a delightfully weird team, equally capable of beating or losing to anyone in the NBA. The defense is what you’d expect with KAT at the 5, but so is the offense. So, it’s a true TBD here.
Toronto Raptors under 29.5 wins (-115)
Current record: 7-20
The only reason this is not “looking good” is because of how good this team has been with Scottie Barnes in the lineup. With him out for a few more weeks with an ankle injury, we might get some assuring losses coming up.
Joe Mazzulla to win NBA Coach of the year (+1100)
The Cleveland Cavaliers being off to an incredible 23-4 start has put some serious doubt into my play here. However, the Boston Celtics aren’t too far behind at 21-5. I get the feeling that whoever wins the East might win this award.
Work to be done
Luka Doncic 10+ assists per game (+160)
Current average: 8.2 AST
After the slow start to Luka’s year, he put himself behind the 8-ball in regard to assists. Since coming back from his laundry list of injuries, he’s bumped his average up nearly a full assist this year, going from near 7.5 to 8.2. It’s going to take more of what we saw against Golden State in order for this to happen.
Luka Doncic to win MVP (+370)
Same deal as above for the MVP, Luka put himself in a spot to where he’s not even top 5 in the MVP ladder right now. Luckily, the Mavs have won enough for him to not fully be on the outside of this conversation. We shall see.
Portfolio adds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change
Mavs to win Southwest Division (+110)
I’m shocked to see plus money still floating around here. Yes, they’re not leading the division right now, but look around and ask who you trust more: Dallas, Memphis or Houston? That’s your competition here. I’ll take my chances.
Denver Nuggets to participate in the Play-In Tournament (+235)
This is a team that is 14-10 with Nikola Jokic putting up numbers we haven’t seen since… last year when Luka did it. (Different story for a different day) If that production falls even just a bit, Denver is in real trouble. Even if it doesn’t, they just lost to the Wizards, for God’s sakes. This is a team absolutely capable of being a 7 or 8 seed.
